It’s been the worst week of Joe Biden’s presidency, so far. Biden’s withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan led to the stunning collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government and the return of the medieval Taliban to power. Biden seems as surprised as everybody else by an outcome his advisers plainly failed to foresee. A foreign policy debacle may now threaten Biden’s domestic agenda, as it has other presidents before him.
The Afghanistan chaos sent Biden’s approval rating down to around 49%, the lowest of his presidency. That’s not a political disaster, yet—President Trump’s approval rating was below 45% when he lost on Election Day last year. But Biden’s momentum on big legislation is now at risk of stalling, and bad news from a foreign hotspot will keep Biden on the defensive for at least the next few weeks.
Less noticed than the shocking news from Afghanistan is a downdraft in the economy as the Covid delta variant takes its toll. Retail sales fell in July, as spooked consumers pulled back. Consumer confidence, by one measure, plunged to the lowest level since 2011. Goldman Sachs slashed its estimate for third-quarter GDP growth from 9% to 5.5%, mainly because of the worsening Covid caseload in many parts of the country.
Bank of America told clients in a research note that inflation, currently at 5.4%, is “now inducing stagflation” that could cause a “flash recession” in the fall. Among the problems BofA cited: plummeting auto production, a drop in home sales, growth worries in China, faltering U.S. confidence and the risks of a Federal Reserve policy mistake, such as keeping interest rates too low for too long.
For Biden, this growing list of challenges could break either way. First, Afghanistan. There’s still a lot more that could go wrong, such as a terrorist incident targeting thousands of U.S. troops massed at the Kabul airport or the evacuation flights taking off daily. The repressive Taliban is seeking thousands of Afghans who fought against them for the last 20 years, which means mass executions or other appalling developments could follow.
But Afghanistan could also settle down, at least from an American perspective. Beacon Policy Advisors points out that the Bay of Pigs fiasco in Cuba in 1961 didn’t hurt President Kennedy in the longer term. The fall of Saigon in 1975 didn’t harm President Ford, politically. President Reagan survived the 1983 Beirut bombing that killed 241 sailors and marines. President Carter did suffer from the Iran hostage crisis that began in 1979, losing his reelection bid in 1980. But that’s probably because the standoff lasted for well over a year and made Carter seem ineffectual.
If US troops are fully out of Afghanistan within, say, a month or two, with no further disasters, Biden will recover. Americans generally support the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, and once that’s the final outcome, the chaotic nature of the pullout may matter less. Republicans will undoubtedly remind voters of the Taliban takeover for months to come, but foreign imbroglios matter far less than economic concerns and other domestic issues.
On the economy, there’s some good news sprinkled amid the bad. Weekly jobless claims continue to fall and recently hit the lowest level since the pandemic exploded in 2020. The labor market recovery continues. Economists think employers will add nearly 900,000 new jobs in August, with official details due Sept. 3. If forecasts are correct, that would be a strong pace of hiring indicating many employers remain unfazed by the Covid Delta breakout. It’s possible the latest wave of Delta infections could peak as soon as more people get vaccinated and fewer people are left to infect.
Most important for Biden is the fate of two pieces of legislation: The $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure deal that already passed the Senate, and the much larger spending bill Democrats hope to pass with no Republican support. Beacon Policy Advisors thinks the odds still favor passage of both bills, which would be a major win for Biden. Other analysts think Afghanistan has drained Biden’s political capital, which could imperil one or both bills. The die may not be cast, with developments during the next few weeks being decisive. Biden still has a chance to escape Afghanistan, just smoothly enough.
Rick Newman is the author of four books, including “Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.” Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman. You can also send confidential tips, and click here to get Rick’s stories by email.
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